 run C:\Work\oebgas\Specification\DR_TC;
  
********************************************************************************
  
 Date:  8/31/07 ****    STANDARD SUR ESTIMATION RESULTS   ****   Time: 16:07:01
  
         		OUTPUT FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\results\out
  
         		    DATA FILE:C:\work\Oebgas\oebgas5.xls
 
********************************************************************************
  
  
        			DEFINITIONS OF OUTPUT VARIABLES:
   
				Y1 is number of customers.
 
				Y2 is weather adjusted residential & commerical deliveries
 
  				Y3 is other delivieries
  
  
        			DEFINITIONS OF BUSINESS CONDITION VARIABLES:
   
				Z1 is % of non-iron miles in Dx miles
    
				Z2 is Number of Electric Customers
    
				Z3 is Urban Core Dummy
 
  				Model includes time trend.
 
 
                    Time period used: 1994 through 2004
  
  

***************************************************************************
                          GAUSS Data Import Facility
***************************************************************************

Begin import... 
Import completed 
Number of rows in input file:                 413 
Number of cases written to GAUSS data set:     412 
Number of missing elements:                    63 
Number of variables written to GAUSS data set:  21 
  1 
409 
===============================================================================
 LINEAR SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION                     8/31/2007   4:07 pm
===============================================================================
                     Data Set:  C:\work\Oebgas\Temp_3.dat                      
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DIVISOR USING N IN EFFECT
RESTRICTIONS IN EFFECT 

        ITER. # =    0    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.07726690
        ITER. # =    1    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11387101
        ITER. # =    2    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11417859
        ITER. # =    3    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11418634
        ITER. # =    4    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11418659
        ITER. # =    5    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11418660
        ITER. # =    6    LOG OF DETERMINANT OF SIGMA =   -15.11418660

                   -----------------------------------
                              Equation:   1 
                      Dependent variable:         C
                   -----------------------------------

     Total cases:              396    Valid cases:                    396
     Total SS:             316.905    Degrees of freedom:            ----
     R-squared:              0.971    Rbar-squared:                 0.970
     Residual SS:            9.195    Std error of est:             0.152
     Durbin-Watson:          0.303

                    Estimated         Standard                      Prob 
     Variable      Coefficient          Error         t-ratio       >|t| 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     CONST          8.15930715       0.02669576      305.641       0.0000 
     WL             0.25117202       0.02008446       12.506       0.0000 
     WK             0.57185028       0.00712666       80.241       0.0000 
     Y1             0.64647326       0.04289936       15.070       0.0000 
     Y2             0.15652898       0.03324091        4.709       0.0000 
     Y3             0.06776143       0.02165798        3.129       0.0019 
     WLWL           0.03019952       0.18110708        0.167       0.8677 
     WLWK          -0.06506122       0.01686791       -3.857       0.0001 
     WKWK           0.15431853       0.01747587        8.830       0.0000 
     Y1Y1           0.15614263       0.03641646        4.288       0.0000 
     Y2Y2          -0.27659896       0.04011523       -6.895       0.0000 
     Y3Y3           0.01527058       0.01365529        1.118       0.2641 
     WLY1          -0.00564046       0.01478471       -0.382       0.7030 
     WLY2          -0.01309131       0.01358868       -0.963       0.3360 
     WLY3           0.00683601       0.00487198        1.403       0.1614 
     WKY1          -0.05916258       0.01551001       -3.814       0.0002 
     WKY2           0.05196239       0.01426865        3.642       0.0003 
     WKY3           0.01267151       0.00514416        2.463       0.0142 
     Z1            -0.58541029       0.05294690      -11.057       0.0000 
     Z2            -0.00826632       0.00108491       -7.619       0.0000 
     Z3             0.04221989       0.01649696        2.559       0.0109 
     TREND         -0.00911713       0.00256454       -3.555       0.0004 
     WLTREND       -0.00671587       0.00390919       -1.718       0.0866 
     WKTREND        0.00473124       0.00123348        3.836       0.0001 


                   -----------------------------------
                              Equation:   2 
                      Dependent variable:        SL
                   -----------------------------------

     Total cases:              396    Valid cases:                    396
     Total SS:               1.940    Degrees of freedom:            ----
     R-squared:              0.148    Rbar-squared:                 0.165
     Residual SS:            1.653    Std error of est:             0.065
     Durbin-Watson:          0.405

                    Estimated         Standard                      Prob 
     Variable      Coefficient          Error         t-ratio       >|t| 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     CONST          0.25117202       0.02008446       12.506       0.0000 
     WL             0.03019952       0.18110708        0.167       0.8677 
     WK            -0.06506122       0.01686791       -3.857       0.0001 
     Y1            -0.00564046       0.01478471       -0.382       0.7030 
     Y2            -0.01309131       0.01358868       -0.963       0.3359 
     Y3             0.00683601       0.00487198        1.403       0.1613 
     TREND         -0.00671587       0.00390919       -1.718       0.0866 


                   -----------------------------------
                              Equation:   3 
                      Dependent variable:        SK
                   -----------------------------------

     Total cases:              396    Valid cases:                    396
     Total SS:               2.429    Degrees of freedom:            ----
     R-squared:              0.228    Rbar-squared:                 0.243
     Residual SS:            1.876    Std error of est:             0.069
     Durbin-Watson:          0.327

                    Estimated         Standard                      Prob 
     Variable      Coefficient          Error         t-ratio       >|t| 
     --------------------------------------------------------------------
     CONST          0.57185028       0.00712666       80.241       0.0000 
     WL            -0.06506122       0.01686791       -3.857       0.0001 
     WK             0.15431853       0.01747587        8.830       0.0000 
     Y1            -0.05916258       0.01551001       -3.814       0.0002 
     Y2             0.05196239       0.01426865        3.642       0.0003 
     Y3             0.01267151       0.00514416        2.463       0.0142 
     TREND          0.00473124       0.00123348        3.836       0.0001 

  
                   -----------------------------------  
                              Equation:   4 			   
                      Dependent variable:        SM	   
                   -----------------------------------  
  
				      Valid cases:                   396 
                                      Degrees of freedom:           ----
   
                    Estimated         Standard                      Prob   
     Variable      Coefficient          Error         t-ratio       >|t|   
     --------------------------------------------------------------------  
     CONST         0.17697770        0.01986353        8.910       0.0000 
     WL            0.03486170        0.17992471        0.194       0.8466 
     WK           -0.08925731        0.01533513       -5.820       0.0000 
     Y1            0.06480305        0.01401352        4.624       0.0000 
     Y2           -0.03887108        0.01286792       -3.021       0.0029 
     Y3           -0.01950751        0.00461424       -4.228       0.0000 
   
  
  
     -------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                       MEASURES OF GOODNESS-OF-FIT
     -------------------------------------------------------------------- 
  
     			AN UNCENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE          0.983 
   
     			A CENTERED SYSTEM R-SQUARE             0.983 
   
    
		The results from the test of the null hypothesis that all slope
     coefficients in all equations are simultaneously equal to zero.
    
        		Test statistic                 Prob > t 
				----------------------------------------
  		          1603.947                   0.0000 
  


     -------------------------------------------------------------------- 
                    VALIDATION OF REGULARITY CONDITIONS
     -------------------------------------------------------------------- 
  
				Monotonicity of the Estimated Cost Function
 
		The number of observations for which each of the following
	 predicted cost share is nonpositive is listed below
  
            Labor          Capital         Materials
              0               0               0 
		   (0.00 %)        (0.00 %)        (0.00 %)
  
  
				Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function
  
The number of the observations for which the condition that the matrix of
second order partial derivatives of the cost function with respect to input
wages is negative semi-definite holds:  
                                              396   (100.00 %)
  
  
				Quasi-Concavity of the Estimated Cost Function
  
The number of observations for which the condition that the cost function is
strictly quasi-concave in input prices holds:
                                              396   (100.00 %)
  
  
				Second Order Condition for Cost Minimization
  
The number of the observations for which the condition that the bordered
Hessian is negative definite holds:
                                              396   (100.00 %)
   
   
      OUT-OF-SAMPLE PREDICTION OF TOTAL COST LEVEL PERFORMANCE LAST 3 YEARS 
   
    Actual     Predicted Difference  t_ratio	 p_value    Utility    	 
  
   
     8.307      8.684     -0.378     -4.250      0.000      East Ohio Gas
     6.674      6.983     -0.310     -3.431      0.000      North Shore Gas
     9.711      9.999     -0.287     -2.748      0.003      SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS
     6.233      6.485     -0.252     -2.682      0.004      Madison Gas & Electric
     6.802      7.015     -0.213     -2.512      0.006      Louisville Gas and Electric
     7.719      7.921     -0.203     -2.238      0.013      SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC
     8.819      8.999     -0.181     -1.875      0.031      NICOR
     7.533      7.684     -0.151     -1.681      0.047      Wisconsin Gas
     8.632      8.777     -0.146     -1.576      0.058      Consolidated Edison
     7.322      7.384     -0.062     -0.684      0.247      Illinois Power
     8.443      8.504     -0.061     -0.663      0.254      Atlanta Gas Light							
     7.828      7.882     -0.055     -0.600      0.274      Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply)
     6.578      6.632     -0.054     -0.579      0.281      Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water)
     7.831      7.878     -0.047     -0.519      0.302      BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO							
     7.200      7.232     -0.032     -0.350      0.363      COMMONWEALTH GAS							
     8.674      8.692     -0.018     -0.183      0.427      Peoples Gas Light
     7.179      7.185     -0.006     -0.067      0.473      Rochester Gas and Electric
     7.353      7.346      0.006      0.071      0.472      People's Natural Gas
     7.705      7.683      0.022      0.236      0.407      new Jersey Natural Gas
     6.599      6.569      0.030      0.325      0.373      Wisconsin Power & Light
     6.527      6.495      0.032      0.342      0.366      Orange & Rockland Utilities
     7.096      7.052      0.044      0.461      0.322      Connecticut Energy							
     7.888      7.842      0.045      0.500      0.309      Northwest Natural Gas
     8.521      8.456      0.065      0.702      0.241      Southwest Gas
     8.895      8.828      0.067      0.725      0.234      Public Service Electric & Gas
     7.711      7.636      0.074      0.813      0.208      Alabama Gas							
     7.072      6.972      0.100      1.005      0.157      Connecticut Natural Gas
     7.028      6.919      0.109      1.104      0.135      Cascade Natural Gas							
     8.618      8.506      0.112      1.207      0.114      Consumers Power
     7.978      7.842      0.136      1.498      0.067      Washington Natural Gas
     6.084      5.857      0.227      2.301      0.011      Central Hudson Gas							
     7.372      7.110      0.262      2.960      0.002      Public Service of North Carolina
     9.551      9.221      0.330      3.639      0.000      Pacific Gas & Electric
     8.123      7.781      0.343      3.840      0.000      Niagra Mohawk
     7.791      7.371      0.420      4.726      0.000      Peco (Philadelphia Electric)
     8.511      8.023      0.489      5.688      0.000      Washington Gas Light
 
 
 RTS (sum of output elasticities) calculated at all data points
 
     sum         yn        yvrc        yvoth       utility
     0.660      0.742     -0.156      0.075      ENBRIDGE							
     0.687      0.781     -0.176      0.081      NICOR
     0.700      0.639      0.002      0.058      Peoples Gas Light
     0.729      0.761     -0.107      0.075      Consumers Power
     0.733      0.747     -0.091      0.077      Public Service Electric & Gas
     0.750      0.695     -0.018      0.072      East Ohio Gas
     0.752      0.659      0.057      0.036      Washington Gas Light
     0.771      0.661      0.042      0.068      Consolidated Edison
     0.800      0.693     -0.004      0.110      UNION GAS
     0.804      0.581      0.154      0.069      Niagra Mohawk
     0.805      0.891     -0.182      0.096      Pacific Gas & Electric
     0.827      0.926     -0.199      0.100      SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA GAS
     0.863      0.757      0.038      0.068      Atlanta Gas Light							
     0.864      0.639      0.169      0.055      Questar (Mountain Fuel Supply)
     0.872      0.584      0.237      0.051      Washington Natural Gas
     0.874      0.371      0.474      0.028      Connecticut Natural Gas
     0.888      0.522      0.326      0.040      People's Natural Gas
     0.897      0.551      0.295      0.051      Peco (Philadelphia Electric)
     0.902      0.367      0.503      0.032      North Shore Gas
     0.902      0.589      0.252      0.061      Wisconsin Gas
     0.908      0.457      0.412      0.038      COMMONWEALTH GAS							
     0.909      0.523      0.346      0.039      new Jersey Natural Gas
     0.911      0.605      0.253      0.054      BALTIMORE GAS & ELECTRIC CO							
     0.915      0.480      0.397      0.037      Rochester Gas and Electric
     0.943      0.541      0.349      0.053      Illinois Power
     0.945      0.399      0.502      0.044      Pg Energy (Penn Gas & Water)
     0.948      0.733      0.146      0.069      Southwest Gas
     0.949      0.335      0.573      0.040      Orange & Rockland Utilities
     0.958      0.568      0.327      0.064      Northwest Natural Gas
     0.964      0.504      0.420      0.040      Louisville Gas and Electric
     0.971      0.351      0.601      0.018      Madison Gas & Electric
     0.986      0.394      0.555      0.037      Connecticut Energy							
     1.002      0.559      0.380      0.062      Alabama Gas							
     1.013      0.527      0.438      0.049      Public Service of North Carolina
     1.027      0.397      0.588      0.041      Wisconsin Power & Light
     1.059      0.634      0.359      0.067      SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC
     1.062      0.404      0.586      0.071      Cascade Natural Gas							
     1.062      0.237      0.792      0.034      Central Hudson Gas							
 